Divergent: Passive buildings provide thermal resilience in a dystopian warming climate.

In the context of a rapidly warming global climate, this study explores the relationship between increasing outdoor temperatures and the thermal discomfort experienced in passively designed buildings. We use a 400 sqm passively designed building as a case, with its calibrated thermal simulation model developed in DesignBuilder. The building is optimized for best practices of passive design for orientation, glazing area, and shading, along with the building envelope assemblies for insulation and thermal mass.

The study uses future weather data for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080, downscaled from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 8.5 (SSP 8.5), as well as Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather derived from historical data and actual measured data from 2020 to 2024, collected from a weather station on the site. The simulations for these weather conditions are analysed with statistical methods to assess the impact of thermal discomfort.

The results of this study reveal a divergent trend between the increase in discomfort in the passively designed building and the rise in outdoor temperatures. This finding is attributed to the thermal mass and insulative properties of the wall materials, which help to stabilize indoor temperatures and reduce the frequency and intensity of discomfort events.

The research contributes to the understanding of how passive building design can be leveraged to enhance resilience and comfort in the face of climate change. It provides valuable insights for building owners, architects, engineers, and policymakers seeking to create sustainable and comfortable living environments for the future.