Estimating indoor mortality and heat risk in residential dwellings in extreme weather scenarios

We present a method to assess indoor heat risk and mortality during extreme weather events by combining national representative building stock models (ResStock) with local tax appraisal data. We simulate contemporary and future climate scenarios (RCP 8.5 2050) with and without power outages to evaluate indoor thermal conditions in Austin, TX. Using a novel physiological-based mortality and extreme heat stress metric, we identify buildings and neighborhoods at greatest risk. Our results show that power outages pose significantly greater mortality risk than climate change alone, with certain areas of East and Central Austin facing disproportionate impacts. This approach enables high spatial resolution heat risk assessment to support targeted resilience planning.