Evaluating occupant behavior model performance considering long-term time use change

Occupant behavior significantly influences residential energy demand, yet existing studies primarily rely on single-year time use survey data neglecting long-term changes of activity pattern.

To address this gap, this study analyzed the long-term changes in time use of Japanese people using five years of Japanese Time Use Survey data. The results showed the existence of long term changes in energy-related activities across demographic groups. The evaluation using CVRMSE metric showed that activity undertaking probabilities can be well estimated through the developed model.

These findings underscore the necessity of incorporating long-term occupant behavior trends into energy demand modeling, facilitating urban energy planning and demand-side management strategies.