How much will future climate change affect building retrofits for energy equity?

Energy retrofits to existing buildings are a critical strategy for reducing household energy burden—the proportion of income spent on utilities—and enhancing energy equity. This is a pressing concern both in the U.S. and globally, with many governments implementing goals and programs to alleviate energy burden through building retrofits. Building simulation serves as a vital tool for understanding the impacts of these retrofits on energy use and costs, thereby influencing energy burden. However, a significant gap exists in current research and practice. Specifically, there has been limited use of simulation to assess the intersection of energy equity and future climate change. The existing body of work on future climate change rarely addresses energy equity, and conversely, studies on energy equity seldom consider the impacts of future climate change.

The objective of this paper is to determine how future climate change affects the implementation of energy retrofits in terms of energy burden. An energy model for a typical existing multifamily residential building in Cincinnati, OH, was developed using information about the local building stock. A series of retrofit measures were then modeled to meet the minimum performance threshold required for financial incentives through a local energy efficiency program as well as high performance design criteria to represent a deep energy retrofit approach. These measures include changes to the building envelope, internal loads, and HVAC systems. These retrofits were simulated using current and future weather data and the results were compared in terms of their energy burden. Since the study focuses on energy burden, utility price escalations and varying income brackets associated with future climate change were also simulated. This study, therefore, plays a pivotal role in advancing the use of building simulation to assess the impact of future climate on energy equity.