Quantifying the compound impact of urban heat island and climate change on cuilding energy consumption in Nanjing’s traditional urban center

Urban heat island (UHI) effects significantly impact building energy performance, yet conventional energy models often neglect these influences, resulting in substantial inaccuracies. Current methodologies rarely integrate UHI effects with long-term climate projections for block-level planning, particularly in historic urban contexts. This study develops an integrated approach combining Local Climate Zone classification, downscaled climate projections, and urban weather generation to assess building energy performance in Nanjing’s old city area.

Results demonstrate that UHI effects consistently amplify temperatures by 1.1-1.5°C across all climate scenarios, with cooling demands increasing up to 80% by 2080 under high-emission scenarios. The methodology provides a systematic framework for evaluating energy consumption in historic urban fabrics under current and projected climate conditions, revealing that different urban morphologies exhibit varying sensitivities to climate change.