Synergistic effects of uncertain parameters on the stability of urban building energy modeling

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) supports low-carbon cities. However, its development is hindered by parameter uncertainties. This paper utilized two typical uncertain parameters, namely the thermal parameters of construction assemblies and the efficiency of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems, to investigate the stability of UBEM through probabilistic methods. Three distinct scenarios were built to achieve this goal, with: 1) the thermal parameter considered only, 2) the efficiency considered only, and 3) a combined analysis of both parameters. A region in Changzhou (China), was chosen as the case study. The results showed that the synergistic effects of uncertain parameters had no impacts on the threshold value for error convergence, as it remained constant at 31; however, they significantly influenced both the fluctuation range and error level when UBEM achieved error convergence. The research outcomes will facilitate the conversion of large-scale computations into multiple convergence unit calculations, thereby significantly enhancing overall efficiency.